Potential for tropical development over Gulf of Mexico increases in what could become Milton

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Published  October 5, 2024 12:20am EDT
FOX 35 Orlando
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Floridians urged to monitor tropical activity in Gulf

We are tracking the potential for tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend which could become Hurricane Milton.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Chances for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week are increasing, with the system expected to be named Milton once it forms.

The FOX 35 Storm Team is watching for an area of low pressure to move into the southwestern Gulf from Saturday night into Sunday. From there, the storm is projected to move northeast toward the Florida Peninsula next week. 

What you need to know about what could be future Milton

By Monday or Tuesday, this system could gain tropical characteristics and strengthen into a tropical depression or storm.

The exact track remains uncertain, but parts of Central Florida could see over a foot of rain mid-to-late next week, depending on the storm's intensity and path. The system is expected to move slowly, increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall. As of Friday afternoon, the NHC forecasts the system in the Gulf has a high (70%) chance of developing quickly, but the impacts to Florida remain unchanged. 

Whether a named storm or a low-pressure system, forecasters believe it will trek to the east and eventually make its way over the Florida Peninsula by mid-week.

Tropical moisture will start to funnel into our region and rain chances will increase on Monday through Friday, with showers likely each afternoon and evening.

Potential flooding could become a concern. At this point, South Florida is favored for the heaviest rain, amounting to over a foot cumulatively over the week.

 If a cold front draped across North Florida next week stays just a bit farther north, we'd see this axis of heaviest rain across Central Florida causing a significant flooding potential. 

There’s a possibility the system could become a hurricane before reaching Florida. Its slow movement raises concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly on the north side of the storm. The exact track will determine where the heaviest rain falls, though current models show some uncertainty.

"Where it tracks will dictate where the most significant rain falls," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren.

Both GFS and European models are largely in agreement that the storm could parallel the I-4 corridor by Wednesday or Thursday next week. 

"For right now, it looks like the range of potential impact to Central Florida is between Tuesday at the earliest and Thursday at the latest, next week. However, it is important to monitor for updates because this is a developing situation in this system has not formed yet," Bergren added. 

Since the system has not yet formed, it’s important to monitor for updates as the situation develops.

Behind next week's system, it looks like we'll sample the first stretch of cooler weather since Spring, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s along with lower humidity. That's something to look forward to.

Hurricane Kirk strengthens into Cat 4 storm

Hurricane Kirk is a powerful Category 4 storm with a large eye. It is expected to approach Category 5 strength by Friday before curving away from Bermuda and the U.S. Kirk was located in the central tropical Atlantic.

The NHC said Kirk is moving toward the northwest and a turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend.

Leslie strengthens into hurricane

Leslie strengthened into a hurricane late Friday to the east of Hurricane Kirk. It is currently not expected to affect land, remaining over the open Atlantic Ocean for the next week.

Leslie is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean for the time being as it gradually turns west-northwestward over the next couple of days. No impacts to land are expected at this time.

Will Kirk and Leslie be a threat to Florida?

It doesn't look like it. According to forecasts, both storms are expected to stay in the middle of the Atlantic. 

However, swells generated by Kirk and Leslie will spread westward and are expected to reach portions of Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas on Sunday, the NHC said.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

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