Invest 97L forecast: Tropical disturbance to become better organized over Gulf of Mexico

ORLANDO, Fla. - August 2 update: FOX 35 will no longer update this article. For the latest updates on Invest 97L, visit our latest weather story by clicking here. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a tropical disturbance over Hispaniola, known as Invest 97L, is highly likely to develop further over the next seven days and possibly become a tropical depression as early as this weekend.

It's still too early to tell exactly where this tropical wave will end up, whether it will become Tropical Storm Debby, and whether it will stay in the Gulf of Mexico or if it will make landfall over Florida – and where. 

The NHC said, "A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea." It now has a 70% chance of developing.  

As it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, it's expected to enter an environment more favorable for further development. The NHC said it could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week over the Gulf of Mexico, not far from Florida.

"Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system," the NHC said.

The latest advisory from the NHC keeps the probability of tropical development at 70%. The tropical wave is getting more organized now and is starting to produce some big thunderstorms, as seen from satellite.

"The key to this system's long-term track and intensity is the near-term track. What has become clear is that a path north of Cuba on Friday will mean a weaker, further south tracking system, while a path on Friday over or south of Cuba could mean a much stronger, westward tracking storm in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "If this system enters the Gulf and stays there longer, hurricane status is definitely on the table, given historically warm ocean surface temperatures."

For Central Florida (FOX 35 and 51 counties), this system is likely to impact the area from Sunday to Monday. It remains unclear whether it brings us enhanced downpours, tropical storms, and a few brief tornadoes or more substantial rain, potential flooding, and higher wind risk. We should know much better on that Friday afternoon and evening. 

What is clear is that significant rains are probable right on the east side of the system, with a flood threat wherever they materialize.

Invest 97L Spaghetti Models: Where could tropical disturbance go?

Will Invest 97L make landfall over Florida?

FOX 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren said a direct tropical impact on the state of Florida, most likely the western parts of the state, appears likely Sunday into early next week. However, it's too early to tell at this point where the system will head, where it may make landfall in Florida, whether it will be a tropical depression, tropical storm, or weak hurricane, and what impact it will have on the Florida Peninsula.

Forecasters are encouraging residents of Florida to continue monitoring the system's progress. 

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order on Thursday declaring a state of emergency for 54 counties, including nearly all of Central Florida.

• Alachua
• Baker
• Bay
• Bradford
• Calhoun
• Charlotte
• Citrus
• Clay
• Collier
• Columbia
• Dixie
• Duval
• Escambia
• Flagler
• Franklin
• Gadsden
• Gilchrist
• Gulf
• Hamilton
• Hernando
• Hillsborough
• Holmes
• Jackson
• Jefferson
• Lafayette
• Lake
• Lee
• Leon
• Levy
• Liberty
• Madison
• Manatee
• Marion
• Monroe
• Nassau
• Okaloosa
• Orange
• Osceola
• Pasco
• Pinellas
• Polk
• Putnam
• Santa Rosa
• Sarasota
• Seminole
• St. Johns
• Sumter
• Suwannee
• Taylor
• Union
• Volusia
• Wakulla
• Walton
• Washington