TIMELINE: Storms expected across western Central Florida on Friday

ORLANDO, Fla. - As expected, there were very underwhelming storms in Central Florida on Thursday. There is some action along and west of Interstate 75, and you may see some distant lightning flashes in the evening sky looking west. Otherwise, Thursday night will be hot and humid.

On Friday, storm chances will be mainly closer to I-75 and westward. An isolated downpour or storm is possible in the afternoon east of I-4, but most spots remain dry.

LONG RANGE: The graphics below show that rain chances this week have been mainly on the state's west coast. This is because the mean 5,000 to 15,000-foot wind in the atmosphere has been oriented from SE to NW, pushing everything west by the time it gets going each afternoon. 

That flow will flip starting Sunday and continue into next week, pushing the storms into eastern Central Florida each afternoon and evening. Therefore, there are higher rain chances for us starting Sunday. It will be sweltering and humid daily, with low-mid 90s highs and a heat index between 102-110°F each afternoon and evening.

TROPICS: Because of the Saharan Dust and the phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian-Oscillation), things will remain quiet through the end of July.

We are watching a system, though. A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa on Thursday and will track westward beneath a giant high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic Ocean this weekend and early next week.

Conditions will remain unfavorable for development through Aug. 1, but things could change after that date. At that point, we will watch this wave closely as it tracks northwest into the Caribbean Sea or southwest Atlantic; some tropical development is possible.

The GFS and Canadian models do not do much with it. The European model is consistent and tries to develop a named tropical system out of it.

No action or worrying is needed at this point, but we will keep close tabs on this wave as it gets near Puerto Rico in the middle and end of next week. A more favorable phase of the MJO will move over the Atlantic, and that, combined with less dust, could possibly cause the area of showers and storms to develop into a tropical system.

Debby is the next name up this year.