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Invest 99L to become tropical depression this week; models show possible path to Florida

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Published  November 12, 2024 7:31pm EST
Weather
FOX 51 Gainesville

Invest 99L update: Disturbance brewing in the Caribbean

A disturbance in the Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression this week, and potentially a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane center and forecast models. FOX 35's Noah Bergen has an update on the tropics.

ORLANDO, Fla. - A tropical depression is likely to develop by Wednesday in the central Caribbean, with a possible upgrade to a tropical storm by Thursday and potentially a hurricane by Friday. 

The storm, designated at Invest 99L, is expected to linger near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua this weekend. Its strength will depend on how close it remains to land: if it stays offshore, it could become a major hurricane; over land, it would weaken.

The system has a 70% chance of development over the next two days, and 90% chance of development over the next seven days.

Is a tropical storm headed towards Florida?

Some initial computer models do show the potential for a system, should it form, to cross Florida, though models have scenarios from northern Florida down to south Florida.

Quite frankly, it is too soon to know and too soon to predict what will form, how strong, and where it could be headed. However, if something were to form, impacts are about 9-10 days away.

Two scenarios are in focus:

  • Scenario 1: The storm tracks between Cancun and Cuba, potentially becoming a major hurricane over open water and impacting Florida early next week as a strong system.
  • Scenario 2: The storm moves over Nicaragua and Honduras before heading toward Belize, eventually reaching the Gulf and possibly heading for Florida. This track would likely result in a weaker system.

When will we know?

We'll learn more each day this week as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this potential system. Once the NHC marks this as an "invest," which means investigation or area of interest, computer data will begin to project potential scenarios.

When does hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, 2024. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. While rare, it is possible for storms to form outside those windows.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes have we had this year?

If Sara forms, it would mark the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 

So far this year, we've had 11 hurricanes and six tropical storms – 17 named storms total.

Hurricanes: Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Helene, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Oscar, Rafael.

Tropical storms: Alberto, Chris, Gordon, Joyce, Nadine, and Patty.

Three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton.

In November, only three hurricanes have made landfall on Florida in the last 173 years of records. Those were an unnamed storm of 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.

What names are left on the list?

  • Sara
  • Tony
  • Valerie
  • William

There are 21 names given each hurricane season, which repeat every six years. Names can be retired if they were considerably destructive or deadly.

If all 21 names are used in a season, there is a supplemental list of storm names. The first five on that list are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, and Emery.

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