Tropical threat in Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico sees slight change in development odds; Is Florida at risk?

ORLANDO, Fla. - The tropics are heating up! The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several systems in the tropical Atlantic, which is typical for the peak of hurricane season.

The primary area of concern is a disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea, where a system has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next seven days.

Forecasters said the weather conditions for the area of low pressure are favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in the next few days rather than in the middle of the week as the system moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico or the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Will the Caribbean disturbance impact Florida?

The Caribbean disturbance is located near the same area where Helene initially formed, but, FOX 35 Meteorologist Noah Bergren said it won't be a repeat of the catastrophic hurricane that left over 100 dead across multiple southeastern US states. 

"I don't think this will be anything like Helene. However, this is something here in Florida we need to especially watch, because whatever forms, the steering is pretty clear – it will get guided towards Florida" Bergren said.

According to Bergren, the system could become a tropical storm or low-end hurricane.

NHC tracking four other disturbances: Tropical Storm Kirk, Tropical Storm Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce

There are four other disturbances being monitored in the Atlantic, including Tropical Storm Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce, and Tropical Storm Kirk. Both Isaac and Joyce are far out in the Atlantic Ocean and are expected to fizzle over the next few days.

Tropical Storm Kirk, the eleventh named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season formed over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday. The storm, previously known as Tropical Depression 12, is projected to develop into a "large and powerful hurricane" later this week, the NHC said. 

Elsewhere in the eastern tropical Atlantic, the NHC is tracking a tropical wave off the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. 

Forecasters said the upper-level winds are expected to become more supportive for development over the next couple of days and a tropical depression may form mid or late this week as it shifts westward. The odds for development over the next seven days have increased from 80% to 90%.

None of these are expected to directly impact the United States.