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Invest 94L has 60% chance of becoming tropical depression, no immediate threat to Florida: NHC

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Published  October 14, 2024 6:25pm EDT
Tropical Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

Invest 94L has 60% chance of development

Forecasters are closely watching two areas for possible tropical development in the coming week – one in the Atlantic Ocean and the other in the Caribbean Sea. One area, known as Invest 94L has a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.

ORLANDO, Fl -
Forecasters are closely watching two areas for possible tropical development in the coming week – one in the Atlantic Ocean and the other in the Caribbean Sea.

A disturbance in the far east Atlantic Ocean, known as Invest 94L, has a greater chance of further development, potentially becoming a tropical depression later this week.  Another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.

What is an Invest?

Invest means "investigation" or "area of interest." When the National Hurricane Center is interested in a weather system in the tropics, designating it as an "invest" allows them to collect additional information and run models of where it may potentially travel. 

Deeming a system or area of interest as an "Invest" does not reflect whether that system will ultimately become a tropical storm or hurricane.

Where is Invest 94L?

On Monday afternoon, the low-pressure system was situated about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, with limited showers and thunderstorms. 

It's in a dry environment, so development is unlikely in the next couple of days, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.  However, as it moves westward toward warmer waters, conditions could become more favorable for gradual development.

Invest 94L satellite image, Oct. 14, 2024

A tropical depression could form as the system inches close to the Leeward Islands.  There is no immediate threat to Florida, forecasters said.

It currently has a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.

What will keep Invest 94L away from Florida?

During the fall, the jet stream becomes more active in the southern U.S. The jet stream also pushes cold fronts toward Florida, which helps to keep tropical systems away from Florida.

It also creates damaging wind shear, which rips tropical systems apart (wind shear and warm ocean temperatures are two big factors in whether a tropical system can further develop).

Tropical wave in Western Caribbean Sea

A broad low-pressure area is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. Some development could occur if the system stays over water as it moves slowly west-northwest toward northern Central America. Regardless, heavy local rain is possible in parts of Central America later this week.

The chance of any tropical formation in the next seven days is low, at 20%.

How long is the Atlantic hurricane season? When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. However, storms have emerged before and after those dates. The next name on the storm list is Nadine.

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